31.07.2025, 14:41
VTB gave a forecast for the key rate until the end of 2025
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS VTB expects that the Central Bank will reduce the key rate several more times and it will average 19.1 percent per year, Dmitry Pyanov, the bank's first deputy chairman, told reporters.
"If earlier we planned that the rate would remain at 21 percent for the whole year, now <...> we assume several more reductions and include an average key rate of 19.1 percent in the forecast for July 31," he said.
Pyanov added that the bank has slowed down its ambitions for the dynamics of the loan portfolio. According to the new forecast, the growth rate of loans to legal entities will be single-digit, not double-digit. As for loans for individuals, a reduction is expected here, as the bank intends to speed up the repayment process.
In general, by the end of the year, the loan portfolio of Russian banks will grow by about six percent, whereas in February VTB predicted an increase of seven to nine percent. Loans to legal entities will grow by more than seven percent, to individuals — by four (in the February forecast — ten and five percent respectively).
"There is no need to see any evil in the modest dynamics of the loan portfolio. In fact, I have a clear theory that says that for both VTB Group and the banking sector, the slower our loan portfolio grows during a period of increasing capital requirements, the more evenly, balanced and harmoniously our body develops," said Pyanov.
According to him, this has a positive effect on margins and compliance with capital and liquidity standards, as well as makes it possible to more effectively manage the cost of raising funds.
By the end of the year, VTB's net interest margin is expected to be 1.5 percent instead of the previously announced one percent. Net fee and commission income will grow by almost ten percent, and return on equity will reach 17 percent instead of 15, as predicted in February.
On July twenty—fifth, the Central Bank lowered the key rate by two percentage points at once to 18 percent per annum. At the same time, the regulator clarified the "neutral signal" regarding further steps: decisions will be made depending on the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations.
"If earlier we planned that the rate would remain at 21 percent for the whole year, now <...> we assume several more reductions and include an average key rate of 19.1 percent in the forecast for July 31," he said.
Pyanov added that the bank has slowed down its ambitions for the dynamics of the loan portfolio. According to the new forecast, the growth rate of loans to legal entities will be single-digit, not double-digit. As for loans for individuals, a reduction is expected here, as the bank intends to speed up the repayment process.
In general, by the end of the year, the loan portfolio of Russian banks will grow by about six percent, whereas in February VTB predicted an increase of seven to nine percent. Loans to legal entities will grow by more than seven percent, to individuals — by four (in the February forecast — ten and five percent respectively).
"There is no need to see any evil in the modest dynamics of the loan portfolio. In fact, I have a clear theory that says that for both VTB Group and the banking sector, the slower our loan portfolio grows during a period of increasing capital requirements, the more evenly, balanced and harmoniously our body develops," said Pyanov.
According to him, this has a positive effect on margins and compliance with capital and liquidity standards, as well as makes it possible to more effectively manage the cost of raising funds.
By the end of the year, VTB's net interest margin is expected to be 1.5 percent instead of the previously announced one percent. Net fee and commission income will grow by almost ten percent, and return on equity will reach 17 percent instead of 15, as predicted in February.
On July twenty—fifth, the Central Bank lowered the key rate by two percentage points at once to 18 percent per annum. At the same time, the regulator clarified the "neutral signal" regarding further steps: decisions will be made depending on the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations.
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