OREANDA-NEWS  A reversal of the trend from the savings to consumer model in the retail segment - the "credit renaissance" - in Russia can be expected no earlier than the second half of 2026, even in the event of a gradual reduction in the key rate at the end of this year, said Georgy Gorshkov, Deputy Chairman of the VTB Board.

"If the Central Bank moves to ease policy in the second half of this year, a credit renaissance, according to VTB, should be expected no earlier than the second half of 2026," he told reporters.

At the same time, Gorshkov noted that the retail credit market will be "updated" in many ways - banks will more carefully assess the debt burden of potential borrowers, and a low initial payment will become "exotic." In the car loan market, smaller amounts will be approved compared to previous years, which motivates borrowers to contribute more of their own funds when completing transactions.

"Even with monetary policy easing, a return to historically low rates in the early 2020s and affordable lending to a wide range of borrowers is unlikely in the next few years. The market will need time to recover, and given the experience of a record long period of high key interest rates, in the future banks will take a more balanced approach to issuing "cheap" loans for a long time," Gorshkov believes.

VTB estimates that the retail lending market will shrink above expectations in 2025. VTB now predicts a decline in the market by about 30% by the end of the year, to 8.8 trillion rubles against the January forecast of 9.1 trillion rubles.