OREANDA-NEWS   According to formal criteria, a banking crisis began in Russia after the "bad debt" crisis, although in both cases these are moderate events. This is stated in the report of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMAKP) on the results of January.

We are talking about exceeding the share of problematic total assets and the loan portfolio of the threshold value of 10 percent of the total in each case. At the same time, the depth of damage is noticeably higher in certain segments, for example, the share of problem loans in the small and medium—sized enterprises (SMEs) sector reaches 19 percent.

As noted in the report, leading indicators have indicated that such a moment is approaching over the past five months. Currently, they also point to the increasing risks of the effect of "investor flight", which will worsen the situation in the banking sector.

The updated indicators of the early warning system indicate an average probability of a systemic banking crisis before December 2026 and a high probability of the economy going into recession at the same time.