OREANDA-NEWS. April 06, 2011. The newest "DnB NORD Latvian barometer" survey displays drastic changes in public opinion with regard to all indicators related to economic development of the country, plummeting as rapidly as in the spring of 2009. Despite all encouraging public forecasts foretelling economic recovery, all measurable indicators of the survey after extended ascent have rapidly returned to the position recorded one year ago. Such decline for the first time after considerable length of time was observed in all indicators without a single exception: present and future outlook of the economic situation; present and future outlook of the family's material standings; opinions on the government's performance, and chances to find a good employment, reported the press-centre of DnB NORD Banka.

The overall public sentiment index in February as compared to January has dropped from -36 to -44. Particularly drastic decline by 12 points applies to assessment of the overall development scenario, or in other words, in February has considerably grown the number of residents who are of opinion that the situation in the country has taken wrong turn. The only period when plummeting of this index was more drastic was the end of 2008 - by 16 points.

Considerably has grown also the number of residents in whose opinion the current economic situation is poor, whereas by 8 per cent points has curtailed the share of respondents considering the current economic situation unaffected, i.e. neither deteriorating nor improving.

Likewise, by four per cent points has decreased the number of respondents considering that the economic situation will improve over the next 12 months, and by nine per cent points (from 31% to 40%) in February has increased the number of respondents expecting that over the next year the situation may aggravate further. Similar trends, even though the growth of pessimism in this regard is rather moderate, can be observed in the residents' opinions on the present material standings of their families and forecasts in one-year prospective. 

From 80% to 84% in February has mounted the assurance that currently it is extremely difficult to find a good employment in Latvia; however, one of the biggest declines in the department of constant indicators of "DnB NORD Latvian barometer" applies to the residents' opinion on the performance of the current government. Dissatisfied with it are 87% of respondents (in comparison: in January the dissatisfaction rate amounted to 80%); moreover, particularly drastic differences display the estimation "very dissatisfied", as in January such answer was chosen by 35%, whereas in February – by 43% of respondents. Positive assessment of the government performance, in turn, has dropped by further four per cent points. 

Viktors Makarovs, the Director of "EuroCivitas" political center, commenting on the drop in indicators, points out: "Nearly all ratios of "DnB NORD Latvia barometer" are identical to those registered one year back; however their context most likely has changed. We are not on the verge of economical collapse, and budget consolidation measures are yesterday's news, yet they have been topped by painful awareness of the fact that the present credit crunch is precursory to more profound long-term social and economic problems. The residents' initial reaction to this awareness implies pessimism, helplessness and paralysis of acting capacities. The future will show, whether it is followed by resolution and courage to draw and realize long-term visions and solutions, or the general public would be doomed to fatality."

In turn, DnB NORD Banka expert in economics Peteris Strautins summarizes: "Latvian economy right now produces positive and sometimes even super-positive "hard" data; e.g. in January the export of goods as compared to the last January has grown by 51%, which is the all-time record. Varying sentiments within the domestic market will not affect the export rates; however, exports can not be the only driving force of economic prosperity: domestic consumption also must display an ascending trend. Therefore, there still persists the peril that negative public sentiments may considerably impede improvement of the "objective" reality. This is why the observers of public processes should juggle, i.e. inform the general public about risks in gently and cautious manner to avoid any scary effects. Yet it actually almost precludes taking of strategically required decisions that might have unpleasant short-term consequences." 

In experts' opinion, the pessimistic assessment of the overall situation logically relates to the results of the second part of "DnB NORD Latvian barometer" asking questions about the respondents' views about emigration abroad and the possible inflow of foreign workforce in Latvia. 

Close to four fifths, or 79% of all respondents admit that emigration of Latvian population to work and reside in other countries is a serious problem that bears long-term implications for the state future outlooks; 9% regard it an important, yet short-term problem, whereas mere 6% have indicated that the problem is not as big as depicted.

Among most principal losses inflicted by outflow of residents on Latvian general public more than 60% have indicated household problems caused to those who have stayed behind (divorced families; children growing without parents, etc.), as well as the fact that most vulnerable are countryside regions, since the majority of emigrants come from there. Just the third position is occupied by overloading of the state social budget, as the persons remaining behind from their limited income must support incapable residents who are on the receiving side of pensions, allowances and other preferences paid out from the tax budget. Supportive of this opinion have been 55% of respondents. Just slightly less – 52% of respondents have indicated that the emigration robs Latvia of capable and intelligent people who might facilitate the prosperity, should they stay. Among other eventual loss one that has been stressed less frequently (by 18%) is the consideration that thus is lessened the pressure on the state government, as many dissatisfied persons leave. Yet the experts point out that it does not mean that the menace of social conflicts has dissolved - most likely, on the contrary.

It is true enough that the people admit possible benefits from emigration as well: in addition to short-term gains, like subsiding of unemployment and poverty level, reinforced by additional funds let into Latvian economy by emigrants to support their families in Latvia, 37% of respondents have also indicated that departed persons acquire new competencies and expertise abroad to contribute to the development of Latvia in the future. At the same time more than 50% of all respondents have mentioned that their acquaintances who have left for other countries are still living and working there, whereas relatives or acquaintances of mere 29% of all respondents who have tried out this option have returned to Latvia.

When asked to voice their opinion on emigrants 54% of respondents to "DnB NORD Latvian barometer" have asserted their support, 23% sympathy, and just 3% disapprove or can not understand such choice. Moreover, 32% of respondents have stated their readiness to leave for another country, as they either can not see any future perspectives in Latvia (15%), consider the local living conditions unbearable (14%), are convinced that in other countries is better social security (11%), or want to live in more civilized country (10%).

Among the reasons are mentioned also higher earnings in other countries. Despite the fact that in other European countries, including one of the most popular destinations for Latvian emigrants, i.e. in Ireland is observed high level of unemployment, 45% of respondents reckon that their wages are still higher than in Latvia, and, should the efforts to find an employment fail, other countries provide by far better social guarantees (27%). One fifth of all respondents admit that anywhere would be better than in Latvia; however 24% acknowledge that there are economic problems in other countries as well, and therefore emigration might not offer the best solution to improve one's financial standings.

When considering the prospective solutions to preclude emigration of capable workforce, the residents first of all have mentioned the necessity to facilitate entrepreneurship to create new workplaces - this opinion was supported by 67% of respondents to "DnB NORD Latvian barometer". At the same time, 51% as a solution have indicated reinforcing of social guarantees to the employed persons (37% have expressed similar opinion with regard to unemployed, indigent persons and other socially less secured groups), and 43% - the need to provide particular support to rural regions to motivate people to stay and work there. The need to stimulate national unity and harbor patriotism feelings in this regard was stressed by mere 7% of respondents.
 
Unlike supportive or tolerant attitude towards emigrants much critical attitude in the survey was displayed against potential foreign immigrants who in the experts' opinion may represent a solution for replacement of missing workforce following the economic recovery in Latvia. 21% subjectively do not support arrival of representatives of other nations and races with the intention to stay, 17% indicate that it might constitute menace to further existence of Latvian culture, whereas 22% speculate that it might further disturb already emasculated social budget. Some third of respondents are of opinion that Latvia as a potential living and workplace would not be interesting to foreigners.

In the summary to the survey results the Director of Market and Public Opinion Research Center "SKDS" Arnis Kaktins says: "I must admit that I am surprised about the fact that the emigration problem at personal level is largely disregarded by the residents of Latvia. For instance, more than one half of the respondents (54%) admit that their initial reaction when thinking about people who leave Latvia is support, and only 1% disapprove of them. Unfortunately, it indicates that those who have decided to stay either are not quite aware of causal relations implicating that every capable person who has left Latvia means loss to everyone who has stayed behind, as it entails drop of the living standard in the future, or we have largely accepted and approved of seemingly inevitable fate - slow and dull extinction of both the state and the nation!"

On the other hand, the social anthropologist Klavs Sedlenieks indicates: "Currently there is no reason to assume that emigration might subside. However, positive changes could appear as soon as the government will disclose its resolution to facilitate entrepreneurship (instead of development of "trusted relative" business), thus implying shortly expected positive developments on the labor market. At the same time we should bear in mind that actually emigration blossomed even back then when the unemployment level in Latvia had reached its nadir. It also tallied with the actions of government that undermined the confidence level, and therefore fair and encouraging endeavors from its part may be of utter importance."

"DnB NORD Latvian barometer" has become renowned monthly sociologic study in the country and appears on monthly basis. It focuses on the hottest issues of the given period; yet at the same time to the general public every time is addressed the list of regular questions that month by month indicate changes in the public sentiments.