IMF: Russian budget revenues from carbon charges could exceed 4% of GDP
The introduction of carbon regulation is necessary to keep the growth of the average global temperature below two degrees Celsius. The Russian authorities can benefit from this. Net budget revenues from the introduction of the "carbon price" usually amount to 0.5 to 2 percent of the country's GDP, but in the case of Russia, this figure in 2030 may be much higher — in the region of 4.3-4.4 percent.
The difference will be largely due to potential carbon charges from representatives of the industrial sector, which account for the largest amount of environmental pollution. Enterprises of the transport and energy industries will also have to make a significant contribution to the revenues of the Russian budget. In addition, considerable damage to the atmosphere is caused directly by the buildings themselves, which emit greenhouse emissions as a result of energy consumption, the organization said. According to IMF estimates, the main beneficiaries from the introduction of carbon regulation in addition to Russia will have to be Saudi Arabia and China. The budgets of these countries can receive revenues from carbon charges in the amount of 2-3 percent of GDP in 2030. The indicator in the USA, in turn, by this time will be at the level of one percent of GDP, and in the European Union (EU) — near zero.
However, the introduction of carbon regulation will not only benefit Russia, but will also lead to negative consequences, experts say. The introduction of such pricing is almost always accompanied by a deterioration in the welfare of the population. Against the background of rising costs, manufacturers will strive to recapture them by increasing the final cost of their products. The IMF estimated the total damage to the Russian economy in 2030 from such measures at about one percent of GDP. For comparison, the European and global average indicators will be around 0.5 percent by this time.
Vedomosti newspaper warned about potential problems for Russians from the introduction of carbon regulation at the end of 2021. Then the analysts of the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, based on the results of the study, came to the conclusion that the introduction of a fee for harmful emissions will affect the cost of housing and communal services (HCS). Thus, the cost of thermal energy may increase by 15.6 percent, electric energy — by 4.9 percent, and natural gas — by 2.1 percent.