OREANDA-NEWS The leadership of the Russian Central Bank (CB) is highly likely to raise the key rate by one percentage point (pp) following the results of the next meeting, which will be held on December 15. This is reported by RBC with reference to the forecast of the surveyed economists.
The vast majority of respondents (22 experts) considered the scenario of raising the key rate by a percentage point the most likely. At the same time, four experts predicted an increase in its size by two percentage points, to 17 percent per annum, two participants predicted an increase of 0.5 percentage points, to 15.5 percent, and three more assumed that the rate would remain at the same level of 15 percent per annum.
Most economists cited the acceleration of inflation in Russia as one of the main reasons for the likely fifth consecutive increase in the key rate. An additional factor may be a slow decline in the pace of lending in the domestic market.
The Bank of Russia began raising the rate in July 2023 amid accelerating inflation. At first, the management increased the key amount by one percentage point — from 7.5 to 8.5 percent per annum. In mid—August, the regulator immediately raised the rate by 3.5 percentage points to 12 percent, and in mid—September - to 13 percent per annum. At the end of October, the Central Bank increased the rate for the fourth time in a row — to 15 percent.
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