OREANDA-NEWS  The peak of overheating of the Russian economy, the presence of which, following the Central Bank (CB), was recognized by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, was passed in the second half of 2023, now its indicators have decreased, Vedomosti writes, citing a source close to the Bank of Russia, according to which the observed high GDP growth of the country may be associated with the expansion of the potential of the economy.

For the first time, the regulator indicated that the economy exceeded its potential level in the September analytical review "What trends say". In December, after the key rate increase, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, compared the Russian economy to an overheated car engine using all its resources at full capacity.

In turn, the experts interviewed by the publication generally agreed with the assessment voiced by the source. Ilya Fedorov, Chief Economist at BCS World of Investments, noted that even taking into account the structural changes taking place in the Russian economy, its growth twice the average rate over 10 years indicates overheating. As explained by Alexander Isakov, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, in this case, the rapid price increase is explained by excessive demand for a limited supply of goods and services.

According to the head of the corporate business analytics department at Dom Bank.Grigory Zhirnov's Russian Federation, taking into account the persistence of inflation above the target level, it can be said that aggregate demand still exceeds the production capacity in the economy, but the scale of this is not increasing now. The expert believes that the recent return to the budget rule, which, along with a high key rate, will limit aggregate demand and bring it in line with supply opportunities, should help to return the economy to balanced growth.

Speaking at the State Duma on May 14 as a candidate for the post of Minister of Economic Development of the country, Maxim Reshetnikov called for trusting the Central Bank in monetary policy issues to preserve financial stability. He recalled that the fight against inflation is being conducted in order to bring it to the target against the background of overheating of the economy, but development is possible even at the level of price growth above the level indicated by the regulator.