OREANDA-NEWS  Rosstat data and leading indicators indicate that by the end of the year, the Russian economy was close to stagnation, as even private consumption, which for the most part provided GDP growth, ran out of steam. Kommersant writes about this.

The Ministry of Economic Development estimates the annual GDP growth for the first 11 months of the year (more recent statistics have not yet been published) at one percent, but separately in November it was only 0.1 percent. At the same time, the output of products and services for basic economic activities decreased by 0.5 percent for the first time since February 2023.

The only underlying industry that showed growth this month was retail sales, but this may be explained by the expectation of an increase in value added tax (VAT) from the beginning of 2026. Private demand increased by 3.5 percent in November, which is a quarter lower than in October.

Meanwhile, Savings Index data shows that consumer spending also fell in the last week of December, down 3.1 percent from the same period last year. In turn, the S&P composite PMI in December indicates a stabilization of economic growth at a near-zero level. In addition, in November, the unemployment rate dropped again to a historically low 2.1 percent.

In January, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the government, the Central Bank and the executive bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to ensure economic growth in 2026.