OREANDA-NEWS. November 11, 2009. We expect industrial production to have continued expanding in October (the data release is scheduled for 16-17 November), although growth is likely to have been less impressive than the 0.4% MoM SA in September.

The electricity consumption data for October suggested a strong improvement in industrial activity. While the October Manufacturing PMI and railway cargo turnover readings were less encouraging, they were still consistent with an expansion in industrial production.

The decline in electricity consumption moderated sharply to just 2.8% YoY in October, from this year’s record drop of 8.0% YoY in September.

Despite the headline Manufacturing PMI declining to 49.6 in October, from 52.0 in September, both the output and new orders sub-indices stayed above the 50 no-change mark (at 51.4 and 51.1, respectively), pointing to expanding output in manufacturing.

Railway cargo turnover dropped only 7.3% YoY in October, showing that the six-month tendency to recovery remains intact. While the number is a step back from the 5.4% YoY drop in September, we attribute the retreat mostly to the high base effect (see our Railway Cargo Turnover - On Metal Rails, of 2 November).