OREANDA-NEWS. November 24, 2009. Rosstat published a set of October statistics revealing 3.9% growth in real disposable incomes, and an -8.5% YoY decline in retail trade (compared with -9.9% for September). The decline in investment was -17.8%, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.

View: On the heels of posting a very disappointing 11.2% YoY drop in industrial output, Friday’s statistics did not bring further negative surprises.  The 3.9% YoY growth in disposable income appears strong, considering the lack of income growth over the past 3 months.

While incomes were supported by zero inflation in October, we believe that, given the lack of real wage growth, the real increase in real incomes is to some extent a function of Rosstat methodology. Nevertheless, incomes were strong enough to impede a further deterioration in retail trade, which seems to bottoming out.

The decline in cargo turnover continues to lessen compared with previous months, indicating continued stabilization of economic activity. In our view, the new information confirms a bottoming out of the economy, but gives little indication of the start of a growth phase.