OREANDA-NEWS. January 30, 2012. The forecast has been revised under conditions of more active deflationary process caused by possible recession of the Euro area and more modest growth in economy, the National bank of Moldova has informed. NBM projects the inflation rate for 2013 at 4,8%.

More thorough assessment of the macro-economic situation, medium term forecasts of inflation, possible risks and challenges the monetary policy of Moldova may face in the next period are to be presented by the National Bank in its first in this year “Inflation Review”. It is published on February, 2, 2012 as it has been scheduled. In 2011 inflation reached 7,8%. in Moldova.

At the same time, NBM projected higher rates of consumer prices and in October, 2012 raised its forecast of inflation for 2011 from 8,4% to 9,6%. Price rates registered in 2011 which grew slower than it had been projected were determined by both; external and internal factors. NBM has listed among them the following ones: atypical weather conditions, development of international foreign exchange markets, volatility of the external economic environment, the trend of strengthening of the national currency against USD and EUR, decline in the internal economic activity under conditions of lower external demand and slower rates of growth in remittances from abroad.

According to NBM, consequences caused by these factors were impossible to be defined at the stage of making the short-term inflation forecast in October, 2011. In 2012 deflationary pressure is predicted to become stronger because of possible economic recession in the Euro area. This will lead to the lower global demand, including regional ones, which may result in lower prices for mineral oil and foods at international markets, affecting by this local prices too.

Decline in inflation in Moldova may be additionally influenced by recession in internal economic activity under conditions of lower external demand, slower rates of growth in remittances from abroad and in salaries and dynamics of Moldovan lei at the internal foreign exchange market.