OREANDA-NEWS. May 05, 2014. An increase of 3.7 per cent of the Moldovan gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014 is possible, but a much more pessimistic evolution is not excluded, according to the National Institute of Economic Research (INCE), which launched the regular issue of the Moldovan Economic Trends publication.

"This level is the maximum threshold that the national economy could reach in 2014", said INCE Director Alexandru Stratan.

In the context of the developments of the Russian-Ukrainian relations, Ukrainian recession and Russia’s new bans on the migration of work force and movement of goods from Moldova, a lower performance of the national economy is not excluded, according to INCE experts.

The forecast is developed "for only one scenario, currently considered as the most probable, based on the current domestic and foreign situation."

Deputy Prime Minister, Economics Minister Valeriu Lazar said that he wanted the INCE forecast to be accurate, as was the forecast in 2013, which was the closest to the 8.9 per cent increase.

The Economics Ministry expects a growth of 3-4 per cent. "It is a forecast that I see as a conservative and realistic, but under certain circumstances we may achieve an increase of up to 7 per cent," said Minister Valeriu Lazar.

INCE anticipates an increase in exports by 10.7 per cent and imports by 4.8 per cent, industrial production by 6.5 per cent and a decline in agricultural production by 5 per cent in 2014. The investments in tangible assets are expected to increase by 5.2 per cent. The exchange rate of the national currency will amount to an average of 13.2 lei per dollar. The average interest rate on loans for 2014 will drop to 11.3 per cent. The money transfers from abroad are expected to increase by 3 per cent.

The World Bank has recently lowered the economic growth forecast for 2014 to 2 per cent, and the Expert Group Independent Analytical Centre predicts an economic growth of 2.1 per cent and 0.5 per cent in case of a pessimistic scenario.