OREANDA-NEWS. The forecast of the analytical agency "AUTOSTAT" for 2015 presumes three scenarios for the car market. The experts say that the main factor of influence is now a politician, which has a direct impact on the economy, living standards and consumer sentiment.

In the case of the stabilization of the political situation, the positive dynamics of oil prices and an end of the national currency depreciation, it can be expected the reduction of the market within 30%. According to optimistic scenario for the year in Russia it may be sold about 1.64 million new cars.

Second, the most likely scenario, provides for the continuation of political tension around Russia, the extension of the sanctions, the volatility in the financial markets, a further gradual deterioration of economic indicators and the decline in real purchasing power of the population. In this case, the decrease in the car market in 2015 may be more than 40% - up to 1.35 million cars.

The agency also does not exclude the "big bang" scenario, when the sales may fall to the level of a little more than 1 million cars. Then the Russian market will lose all the gains of the last decade and it will come back to the beginning of the performance of the two thousandth's. According to the director of the agency "AUTOSTAT", Sergey Tselikov, this scenario is unlikely; however, due to the political situation around Russia, it could not be excluded.

According to Mr.Tselikov, in any case it will be continued the increase of the prices of cars during the year. Since the end of last year cars have increased in price by an average of 20-30%, during the next six months it should be expected the growth for about the same amount. Surveys show that consumers are now postponing the decision to buy a new car "until better times." In this regard, there will be a growth of period of car ownership for 1-2 years.