OREANDA-NEWS In Russia, in two months, a bottle of wine in Russia will be equal to vodka and will rise in price to 300 rubles. Vadim Drobiz, director of the Center for Research on Federal and Regional Alcohol Markets "CIFRRA", was quoted by Forbes as saying the minimum prices.

Experts call the imminent rise in price of wine in Russia inevitable. Firstly, due to the increase in import duties on wines from "unfriendly" states from 12.5 percent to 20 percent, but not less than $ 1.5 per liter. Secondly, due to the increase in excise taxes on still and sparkling wines. In 2025, the excise tax will amount to 112 rubles per liter, in 2026 — 116 rubles.

As noted by Ruslan Solovyov, manager of the Gradusy vehicle, if a couple of years ago Russian wine of not the best quality could be bought for 149-199 rubles per bottle, now due to the increase in excise taxes and inflation, the cheapest wine will cost the consumer at least 299-399 rubles.

Imported wine will also become more expensive, especially since by the end of 2024, according to Solovyov, wine imports to Russia from "unfriendly" countries will fall by 15 percent. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has already supported the idea of the Association of Winegrowers and Winemakers of Russia on a 200% import duty on wines from NATO countries. If this norm works, then European wines in Russia will cost from 600-700 rubles.

Elena Tsareva, Director of Strategic Development at B2C Simple Group and head of the SimplePrivé & Corp department, warned that there is nothing to replace European wines yet, although Russian winemaking is developing and there are already many world-class domestic products. However, it will not be possible to cover all demand with local products alone. Solovyov agrees with her, who recalled that domestic winemakers cover only 60 percent of the needs of the local market. He believes that Russia needs another 20 years to fully develop the industry.

Drobiz said that European and domestic wines are not fighting for an abstract consumer, but "specifically for a Russian middle-class woman." It turns out that 90 percent of Russian and 80 percent of imported wines are consumed by women. And for reasons of psychological comfort, they will be willing to pay 1,500 rubles more for imported alcohol than to buy Russian products of comparable quality.

However, according to Leonid Popovich, Director for Russia of the World Wine Tourism Organization, wine in the Russian Federation cannot be sold at a very low price, since a serious part of the equipment used in its production is imported. Russian manufacturers have already warned that their products will rise in price by 4-20 percent during the year.

As Rosstat found out, from January to April 2024, grape table wine has already increased in price from 560.64 rubles to 572.17 rubles per liter. Grape fortified wine — from 759.48 to 778.18 rubles per liter, and Russian sparkling wine — from 472.86 to 480.25 rubles per liter.

According to INFOLine CEO Ivan Fedyakov, the rise in wine prices is turning into a "restructuring of the shelf." A reduction in consumption in the wine segment leads to an increase in others. Therefore, by the end of 2024, the amount of wine consumed by Russians in liters will decrease by 10-20 percent.

Meanwhile, wine imports in Russia have already decreased by 18 percent in monthly terms to 63.2 million euros. Italy remained the main supplier, which sold wines worth 19.9 million euros. Latvia and Lithuania also entered the top three.

Vodka remains the most popular type of strong alcohol among Russians. Its share occupies 63.5 percent of the Russian market. At the same time, the global share of vodka is estimated at 10.9 percent of the market. In general, the volume of consumption of strong alcohol in Russia is gradually falling. As the Ministry of Health found out, in 2023, ethanol consumption per capita decreased to 8.4 liters. In 2018, this figure was at the level of 9.4 liters per person.