OREANDA-NEWS  With the exception of the seasonal factor, Russia's GDP in January-March 2025 could decrease by 0.3 percent in quarterly terms, which was the first quarterly decline since April-June 2022. This assessment of statistics was given by experts interviewed by Vedomosti.

Raiffeisenbank analysts pointed out that the dynamics of the economy shows clear signs of deterioration, and the most difficult situation is in industrial production, which is dragging down GDP.

Since the slowdown is taking place against the background of low oil prices, a reduction in the key rate may be required earlier than expected in the Central Bank, for example, in the summer.

The Ministry of Economic Development estimated annual GDP growth in the first quarter at 1.7 percent. Rosstat is due to publish official data on May 16. According to Stanislav Murashov, chief analyst at Raiffeisenbank, it is possible to adjust the figures by quarter.

Alexander Isakov, chief economist for Russia and Central and Eastern Europe at Bloomberg Economics, estimates a 0.6-0.8 percent drop in GDP in the first quarter. He also points out that the leading indicators indicate a continued downward trend in business activity in the second quarter.