OREANDA-NEWS. On November 17, 2008 Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that it affirmed its long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on the five largest private sector banks in the Republic of Kazakhstan (foreign currency BBB-/Negative/A-3, local currency BBB/Negative/A-3), namely BTA Bank J.S.C. (BTA, 'BB/B'), Kazkommertsbank (JSC) (KKB, 'BB/B'), Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan (Halyk, 'BB+/B'), Alliance Bank JSC (Alliance, B+/B'), and ATF Bank (ATF, 'BB+/B'). At the same time, Standard & Poor's revised the outlook on ATF to negative from stable. The outlooks on the other four banks remain negative, reported the press-centre of KASE.

The rating actions follow the recently announced government support measures that reduce the immediate downgrade pressure on BTA, KKB, Halyk, and Alliance. For Alliance, and similar to these other three banks, we now give greater weight for potential government support in the ratings. The government recently explicitly identified Alliance as a systemically important bank and included it in its support program. Some uncertainties remain regarding the inclusion of other banks--including ATF, majority owned by UniCredit, and CenterCredit Bank (not rated), partly owned by Kookmin Bank - under this scheme.

Reflective of continued funding and liquidity challenges and asset quality deterioration, most of our outlooks on financial institutions in Kazakhstan remain negative. Today's outlook revision on ATF reflects these concerns about factors that put downward pressure on the bank's stand-alone creditworthiness. The long-term rating on ATF includes a three-notch uplift from its stand-alone credit quality for expected parental support, resulting from its majority ownership by Italian bank UniCredit SpA (A+/Negative/A-1).

The Kazakh government announced in late October a series of support actions to sustain the stability of the banking sector and the economy. The most significant support measures include:

- Some capital injections into the largest private sector banks (up to US5 billion),

- Liquidity support for corporations and small and midsize enterprises(US 5 billion),

- Lowering of obligatory reserve requirements,

- Tightening of capital requirements,

- A seven-fold increase in the maximum guarantee on retail deposits (to Kazakh tenge (KZT) 5 million, or more than US 40,000, from KZT700,000) and,

- Extending refinancing possibilities with the National Bank of Kazakhstan.

These measures fit with our classification of Kazakhstan as an "interventionist" country regarding its support of systemically important private banks. As such, the long-term ratings on KKB, BTA, Halyk, and Alliance are one notch higher than their stand-alone creditworthiness. The government has proposed to invest, in the form of common, preferred shares and subordinated debt, at least US 300 million in KKB, US 2.3 billion in BTA, US 500 million in Halyk, and US 370 in Alliance.

Although the size of the so-called capitalization program is significant, representing almost 5% of Kazakhstan's GDP or total banking system assets, Standard & Poor's understands that the majority of these funds will consist of subordinated debt, which we do not take into account in our capital assessment.

Therefore, this will most likely bring these banks' adjusted common equity up by only about 10%-15%. As a result, the government may take up to a 25% stake in each of these banks, unless current shareholders or new investors decide to subscribe to the capital increases.

Although we expect this process to take at least a few months, these funds should soon be placed as deposits with the banks. We do not expect any major shifts in the banks' strategic development, and the government has announced its plans to divest these investments in the coming years once the banking sector tension eases considerably.

Although smaller banks should gain a wider access to the National Bank of Kazakhstan refinancing window and government deposits, the government support plan risks putting additional pressure on them. Smaller institutions are likely to be challenged to maintain customer confidence and meet more conservative regulatory capital requirements in the coming months.

We currently see no tangible signs of banking sector recovery and believe that the resolution of the problems will be a lengthy process. At the same time, we acknowledge Kazakh banks' efforts to increase their provisioning needs and better recognize problem loans. Although Kazakh banks have adapted swiftly and effectively to the radically altered economic and banking environment, we feel that the prolonged and deepening dislocation is eroding their creditworthiness.

The economic environment is characterized by a deep-seated global liquidity crisis and a domestic economic slowdown, both of which continue to erode banks' liquidity levels and asset quality. We estimate "loans under stress" at 20% for the banking sector, and provisioning coverage is only slowly approaching this level.

On a positive note, the expected capital increases should improve banks' capitalization in the near future.