OREANDA-NEWS In the situation of a global trade war unfolding, the EU economy will be the most vulnerable due to import restrictions, experts interviewed by the Vedomosti newspaper concluded. The GDP of the bloc's countries may fall by 4 percent.

Researchers from the Central Economic and Mathematical Institute (CEMI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences have modeled the potential consequences for the whole world. They noted that China will be able to replace imports without significant losses, and Russia "will show average adaptability to restrictions, but will be able to smooth out the consequences for the economy."

Russia's resilience can be explained by its high share of its own resources, in addition, import substitution has worked more effectively than Western analysts expected, said the director (CEMI) Albert Bakhtizin RAN.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply lowered its forecast for the growth of the Russian economy in 2025. In 2026, the IMF expects slightly more active growth in the Russian economy. The forecast for it increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous one, from 0.9 to 1.0 percent.