OREANDA-NEWS. November 27, 2008. As EBRD senior economist Anita Taci noted in the Transition report: “The country has so far been largely unaffected by the global financial crisis, but the impact will lead to a reduction of growth next year. Improved access for Moldovan products on the EU markets and the resumption of wine exports to Russia have contributed to the country's robust growth in 2008, but going forward much will depend on how these export markets will perform.”

The Transition Report also said there was a risk of even slower growth in the region next year if external funding suddenly fell away. In particular, some countries continue to run excessive current account deficits combined with high foreign currency debt and are therefore prone to significant output reductions if capital inflows fall off rapidly.

The EBRD’s Transition Report 2008, which tracks the economic performance and progress on reforms across EBRD countries, predicted overall growth would fall to 6.3 per cent in 2008 from 7.5 per cent in 2007 and drop further to 3.0 per cent in 2009. The EBRD sees growth in Central Europe and the Baltics (CEB) slowing to 4.3 per cent in 2008 from 6.3 per cent last year and easing further to 2.2 per cent in 2009.

Growth in south-eastern Europe is seen rising to 6.5 per cent this year from 6.2 per cent in 2007 and then falling back to 3.1 per cent next year. Growth in the CIS and Mongolia is predicted to slow to 7.3 per cent this year from 8.5 per cent and to drop to 3.4 per cent in 2009. In Moldova the economy is expected to grow 6.0 per cent in 2008 after growth of 3.0 per cent in 2007 and to grow 4.1 per cent in 2009.