OREANDA-NEWS. Export duties on crude oil will be raised 1% to US240.7 per ton (US 33 per barrel), effective 1 October, reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE FC.

View: The impact of the export duty hike on the oil industry depends upon the price of oil. If the price of crude returns to the US 67-70 range in October, the netback export price could remain relatively unchanged compared from its September level (US 26.3-26.5/barrel). However, if the crude price stays at its current levels, or even decreases, the netback price could go drop by 8-11%. Nevertheless, we expect that 3Q09 operating results and financials of the oil industry to be higher QoQ since the price of oil was up 14% QoQ in 3Q09.

Valuation: The average 2010 P/E for the Russian oil majors is equal to 7.4x. Russian oil stocks trade at a 22% discount on P/E to their EM peers, and at a 19% discount to international majors.
Action: We view this news as neutral for oil stocks.