OREANDA-NEWS. November 19, 2009. TNS-Gallup has released its Russian TV audience share estimates for the top 20 FTA (free-to-air) broadcasters for the week of 2-8 November for the 4+ audience. According to the figures, the audience shares of CTC Media’s three Russian networks, CTC, Domashny and DTV, reached 9.4%, 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively.

The average YTD audience shares for CTC, Domashny and DTV are 8.7%, 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively (compared with our FY09 forecasts of 8.7%, 2.2% and 1.9%). They therefore support our bullish view on the stock.

The stock (Buy, 12-month Target Price of USD 28) currently trades at 9.1x on 2010F EBITDA, offering a 20-25% discount to the developed market peers’ average.

Autumn is generally the strongest season for TV broadcasters in terms of revenues, especially at CTC Media, when its target audiences (aged 6-54 for CTC, women aged 25-60 for Domashny and 25-54 for DTV) are those remaining in town. Furthermore, fourth quarter seasonality is generally noticeable throughout the Russian media market, with up to one-third of advertising budgets coming in October-December.

The audience at the flagship CTC network was supported by series and sitcoms produced in-house such as Daddy’s Girls (YTD audience share of 13.1%), Ranetki (YTD audience share of 11.7%) and Margosha with 11.7% posted at the reported week, as well as by the in-house produced show 6 Frames (YTD audience share of 10.1%).

In a further development of its so far successful autumn season, CTC launched a new sitcom Voroniny (made by the Russian production house Lean-M), a 40-episode Russian version of America’s Everybody Loves Raymond. The story is based on a Russian couple and their three children living with the 40-year old husband’s brother and parents. The sitcom’s cast includes very popular Russian actors and is aired weekdays at 8.00pm (the slot Ranteki used to occupy).