OREANDA-NEWS. In 2015 the Russian car market could fall by 7% to 2.17 million units, while sales of Lada (brand leads the market) - by 4.7% to 366,000 vehicles, predicts IFC "Metropol". Now it is the opposite: sales of AvtoVAZ fall more than the overall market declines, wrote the newspaper "Vedomosti". By the end of 2014 car sales in the country will be reduced by about 12% to 2.3 million units, sales of Lada - by 16% to 384,000 units, according to the " Metropol”. It's close to the expectations of AvtoVAZ, in 2014 it expects to sell 385,000 vehicles, said a representative of the plant. He refused to make predictions for 2015.

Analyst of "VTB Capital", Vladimir Bespalov, predicts that in 2015 total sales of passenger cars in the country will fall by 10%, according to the general director of Auto-dealer.ru, Oleg Datskiv – by 15%. But experts agree that AvtoVAZ will feel better than the market. The fall in the brand can be half less than the market, says Mr.Datskiv. AvtoVAZ may even increase sales by 3-4% in 2015, admits Mr.Bespalov.

In the first half Lada will be supported by the continuation of the scrappage program, said the analyst of "Metropol", Andrei Rozhkov. Since September of 2014 for the purchase of a new car and recycling old or using a trade-in, you can get a discount of 40 thousand rubles. Lada leads in the overall standings (40% of total sales). In 2015, for the extension of the program the state will allocate the plant in the form of grants 10 billion Rubles, but the money may be not enough for more than six months, experts say. Another supporting factor for AvtoVAZ, in their opinion, is the weakening of the ruble. Since the beginning of 2014 the dollar rose by 86.8%, the euro – by 69.3%. Localization of AvtoVAZ – is about 80%, foreigners usually have it less than 20%, says Mr.Rozhkov. As a result prices for foreign cars are rising, including those that are produced at Russian plants of global automakers. AvtoVAZ prices have not risen yet, but dealers expect that it will happen at the beginning of 2015, by about 5%. Assessment of Mr.Datskiv, Lada will become more expensive by 10%. But against the backdrop of rising prices for foreign cars it will not matter much, because their prices in 2015 will grow at least 15-20%, he said.

In the second half sales of Lada will be supported by the appearance of new products Lada - Lada Vesta and Lada Xray. It is not excluded the expansion of the recycling program, if the market will fall much, say experts. In addition, the restructuring of dealer network will help AvtoVAZ - the company increases the motivation of partners, allowing them, for example, to earn also on the service, reminds Mr.Datskiv.

In 2015, AvtoVAZ feel fully the effect of the implemented since the beginning of 2014 cost reduction program (reduction in purchase prices, the number of employees and so on), experts say. By the end of 2014 Mr.Bespalov expects a net loss under IFRS at the level of 6.6 billion Rubles (3.6 billion Rubles, according to the "Metropolis"), and in 2015 - the net profit of 4.9 billion Rubles (1.5 billion Rubles).