Global refinery runs are forecast to reach a record 82.4mn b/d in July, the IEA said
Refinery runs are forecast to rise every month from April-July, pushing second quarter runs up by 1.15mn b/d on the year to 79.9mn b/d.
Among OECD countries, second quarter runs are forecast to rise by 505,000 b/d on the year to 37.6mn b/d. The growth is a bounce back from the 515,000 b/d decline in the second quarter of 2016, largely caused by Canadian wildfires and strikes in France.
In non-OECD countries, second quarter runs are expected to rise by 1.2mn b/d on the year to 42.4mn b/d. China's ascendancy continues, with runs up by 440,000 b/d on the year to around 11.2mn b/d, though the IEA attributes part of this rapid growth to broader coverage of independent refineries.
The stronger global run rates in the second quarter come as latest IEA data show a fall in OECD oil industry product stocks of 20.3mn bl in February compared with the previous month — signalling a reversal of the stock overhang that weighed on run rate growth for much of 2016.
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