Gas Price in Europe May Fall to $ 200, Expert Said
A tangible rise in gas prices in Europe began in spring, when the average spot price according to the TTF index fluctuated in the range of $ 250-300 per thousand cubic meters. at the beginning of October, it crossed the threshold of $ 1,000. In December, quotations doubled.
The historical maximum in the futures market - $ 2190.4 per thousand cubic meters - was reached on December 21. There has never been such an unprecedented level of prices in the entire history of the functioning of gas hubs - since 1996 - in Europe.
The price of gas will go down sharply starting from April and by the middle of summer it should reach some parity with other types of fuel (in terms of calorific value), says Sergey Kolobanov, deputy head of the Economics of the Fuel and Energy Complex Sectors of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR).
"If oil prices remain at the level of $ 60-80 per barrel, the" fair "gas price (cleared of speculative and political factors) should go down into the corridor of $ 200-500 per thousand cubic meters," he specifies.
It is wrong to draw a conclusion about the medium-term price dynamics, focusing only on the anomalies of the last year, says Dmitry Marinchenko, director of the group for natural resources and commodities at Fitch. “We are still proceeding from the assumption that within three to five years, prices may fall below $ 200,” he notes.
A slightly different price range is called by a senior consultant at Vygon Consulting Ekaterina Kolbikova. Quotes, she believes, due to the peak of the record commissioning of the production capacities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants, until 2025, will be an order of magnitude higher than the values of the previous four years, in the corridor of $ 360-540 per thousand cubic meters.