12.08.2025, 10:39
Analysts told how the US duties will affect the value of diamonds
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS The decline in demand in the market will keep global diamond prices from rising, despite the introduction of additional US import duties on goods from India, and the relocation of enterprises from India may support the cost of stones, experts interviewed by RIA Novosti believe.
Earlier in August, US President Donald Trump signed a decree imposing an additional 25% duty on imports from India for its purchases of Russian oil. These sanctions will take effect on August 27. Industry publications have already noted in this regard that this could be a "black day" for the global diamond industry: the gemstone market risks losing one of the most important export sectors.
"If import duties from India had been introduced at a more favorable time for the diamond market, they could have increased the shortage in the diamond market, the largest segment of which is the US market, which would have led to higher prices. But in the state of crisis and falling diamond prices, expectations of duties had practically no effect on price dynamics," estimates Alexey Kalachev, an analyst at Finam Financial Group.
"The market is already in crisis due to the growing popularity of artificial diamonds and the declining demand for faceted products in China," adds Andrey Smirnov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments.
In addition, despite the reduction in cutting volumes, diamond prices will not rise, but will continue to decline in the short term due to an oversupply of processed diamonds due to excessive shipments from Indian producers to the United States before the duties take effect, he predicts. Therefore, it is beneficial for buyers to temporarily abandon new purchases in anticipation of lower prices due to oversupply.
The industry can be supported by the redomicilation of Indian companies or the opening of individual companies outside India. For example, Titan, India's largest jeweler, has already announced plans to establish production facilities in the UAE, where the corresponding duty is only 10%.
In addition, the Jewelry Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) is developing legal re-export schemes through low-duty countries: the UAE (10% duty), Mexico (25% versus 50% for India), Belgium (15% for the EU).
Earlier in August, US President Donald Trump signed a decree imposing an additional 25% duty on imports from India for its purchases of Russian oil. These sanctions will take effect on August 27. Industry publications have already noted in this regard that this could be a "black day" for the global diamond industry: the gemstone market risks losing one of the most important export sectors.
"If import duties from India had been introduced at a more favorable time for the diamond market, they could have increased the shortage in the diamond market, the largest segment of which is the US market, which would have led to higher prices. But in the state of crisis and falling diamond prices, expectations of duties had practically no effect on price dynamics," estimates Alexey Kalachev, an analyst at Finam Financial Group.
"The market is already in crisis due to the growing popularity of artificial diamonds and the declining demand for faceted products in China," adds Andrey Smirnov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments.
In addition, despite the reduction in cutting volumes, diamond prices will not rise, but will continue to decline in the short term due to an oversupply of processed diamonds due to excessive shipments from Indian producers to the United States before the duties take effect, he predicts. Therefore, it is beneficial for buyers to temporarily abandon new purchases in anticipation of lower prices due to oversupply.
The industry can be supported by the redomicilation of Indian companies or the opening of individual companies outside India. For example, Titan, India's largest jeweler, has already announced plans to establish production facilities in the UAE, where the corresponding duty is only 10%.
In addition, the Jewelry Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) is developing legal re-export schemes through low-duty countries: the UAE (10% duty), Mexico (25% versus 50% for India), Belgium (15% for the EU).
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