OREANDA-NEWS Russia will lose sixth place among the world's economies in 2024, Indonesia will overtake it in purchasing power parity (PPP), informs the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to the updated forecast of the IMF, in 2024 the share of Russian GDP in the world, calculated by PPP, will decrease to 2.52%, and the share of Indonesia will reach 2.61%.

PPP makes it possible to compare the GDP of different countries adjusted for exchange rates. IMF experts estimate that by the end of 2022, this indicator for Russia will decrease to 2.72%, at the end of last year it was 3.07%. In 2024, it will decrease to 2.52%. The horizon of the IMF's April forecast is 2027, by which time Russia's share in the global economy in PPP terms may decrease to 2.34%.

The IMF forecast, published in October 2021, retained Russia's sixth place among the Russian economy, while experts estimated the country's share in world GDP at 2.84% in 2026, 0.4 percentage points more than in the April forecast. According to the IMF, Russia's share in the global economy peaked in 2008 at 3.68%.

In 2019, the IMF predicted that Indonesia would overtake Russia in terms of its share of GDP by PPP. However, the forecast did not come true — in the pandemic 2020, Russia's GDP decreased by 2.7%, and in 2021 it grew by 4.7%. In 2018, Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with representatives of big business at the SPIEF, noted that Russia is close to becoming one of the five largest economies in the world by PPP.

The IMF notes that Russia's GDP will shrink by 8.5% in 2022 and by 2.3% in 2023. According to the updated forecast of the IMF, the physical volume of Russian commodity exports, excluding changes in value, in 2022 will fall by 17.2% compared to the previous year, the volume of imports — by 25.4%. In 2023, these volumes of exports and imports will remain approximately at the same level as in 2022. Russia's current account surplus by the end of 2022 is projected by the IMF at a record level of $227 billion, but by 2024 it will drop to $90.6 billion.