OREANDA-NEWS. November 13, 2009. According to Rosstat, during the week ending November 9 Russian CPI increased 0.1% to reach 8.2% YTD. Meanwhile, CBR reported a 4.6% MoM increase in the monetary base in October, bringing the total to RUB5.024 tr., reported the press-centre of OTKRITIE Financial Corporation.   

View. Following a three-month period of zero inflation, this is the first week in which CPI has demonstrated growth. The resumption of CPI growth was expected, as the time for seasonal disinflation is coming to an end. And while this year's inflation is still likely to be under 9%, next spring we expect inflation to pick up.

Monetary base growth was primarily the result of CBR’s return to interventions in forex markets, with purchases of over US15bn in October. Half of this monetary base expansion has been sterilized through an increase in accounts and deposits with CBR. Banks see little opportunity for lending growth, with cash also increasing by RUB92bn.  While this expansion of the monetary base has yet to put significant pressure on the CPI, once lending growth resumes it will become an inflationary factor.