OREANDA-NEWS  By the end of 2024, coal production in Russia will fall by three percent, to 427 million tons, and exports — by six percent, to 199 million. This forecast is presented in the latest report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which is referred to by Vedomosti.

The decrease next year will be three and seven percent, respectively, which will bring production and exports to the levels of 416 and 185 million tons. By the end of 2026, the figures will be reduced to 416 and 180 million tons, and in 2027 - to 412 and 178 million. At the same time, the IEA believes that the fall will affect both energy and metallurgical coal.

Several factors allow the agency to predict negative dynamics. Among them is the low profitability of exports, which has developed due to discounts that coal companies are forced to provide to customers against the background of Western sanctions.

These circumstances are superimposed by internal Russian logistics problems, difficulties in paying for shipments from abroad and unstable supplies. By August, more than half of Russia's coal industry was under sanctions, and most of the countries to which supplies go comply with restrictions and reduce imports.

The Russian authorities see the situation in a more optimistic way. In particular, in mid-December, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak indicated that coal production in 2024 would decrease by one percent, and in 2025 it would remain at the same level.