OREANDA-NEWS  The risks of a shock increase in world oil prices are currently unlikely, as the Iranian leadership is unlikely to decide to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for the sale of raw materials. This opinion was expressed by Vandana Hari, founder and head of the Vanda Insights analytical company, as quoted by CNN.

She recalled that Iran's exporters are heavily dependent on the sale of raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz. If this route is closed, they will lose a significant part of their oil sales revenue, and the budget of the Middle Eastern country will not be counted. "Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an unlikely risk," Hari concluded.

If the Iranian authorities nevertheless decide to take such a radical step due to the escalation in the Middle East, the country will face not only economic, but also political damage, the analyst noted. Qatar and Saudi Arabia also depend on the sale of raw materials — liquefied natural gas and oil — through the Strait of Hormuz, and China depends on imports via this route. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could deprive Iran of support from these states, Hari concluded.

A similar opinion on this issue was previously expressed by Alexey Gromov, Chief Director for Energy at the Institute of Energy and Finance (IEF). The loss of a significant portion of Iran's budget revenues from oil sales could undermine the socio-political situation in the country, he warned. The expert believes that a scenario is more likely in which global market participants will gradually get used to the "relatively constant" tension in the region and will not face a shock increase in commodity prices.