OREANDA-NEWS  Russian energy coal supplied from the ports of the Far East has fallen in price by an average of 17 percent since the beginning of the year. Kommersant writes about this with reference to the data of the Center for economic Forecasting of Gazprombank (CEP GPB).

According to analysts, such dynamics is associated with a relatively warm winter, the outpacing growth of coal production in China and a sharp decline in gas prices in Europe, which in February were three times lower than a year ago. Most likely, the situation will not change until the end of the second quarter, which is characterized by low fuel consumption.

By the end of February, thermal coal with a calorie content of 6000 kilocalories in ports costs $ 135 per ton, and with a calorie content of 5500 kilocalories — $ 124. A year ago, their prices fluctuated at the level of 140-193 dollars per ton.

According to Rosstat, in January, coal production in Russia decreased by 1.8 percent compared to the same period last year, to 34.9 million tons. On a monthly basis, the drop reached 19.3 percent. In Kuzbass, the main coal-producing region, compared with January last year, production fell by eight percent, to 17.5 million tons.

The growing risks of a global recession are reducing demand for raw materials, including energy coal, says Sergey Grishunin from the NRA. Nevertheless, he does not expect coal prices to fall below $ 120 in the first half of the year, since in this case fuel supplies from the United States and Canada will begin to fall.

In 2022, coal production in Russia increased by 0.3 percent, but exports decreased by seven percent, due to logistical problems. The transshipment of the Eastern landfill (Baikal-Amur and Trans-Siberian highways) did not allow for the prompt export of fuel to the ports of the Far East, and supplies to China and India through the ports of the northwest were too expensive.