OREANDA-NEWS According to the results of the first five months of 2026, industrial production in Russia increased by 0.4 percent year-on-year, while individual production decreased by 0.7 percent in May. This is reported by Vedomosti with reference to Rosstat data.

Yulia Katasonova, senior director of non-financial company ratings and NRA ESG ratings, compared this result with statistical noise, since monthly results are unstable (growth in March and April, decline in January, February and May), and the overall advantage is insignificant.

The expert noted the deep stagnation of civilian industries, which is offset by positive dynamics in areas related to the military-industrial complex (MIC) and government orders. According to her, what is happening can be described as a distortion of the industry rather than its growth.

Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov explained that the industry is hampered by expensive loans, cautious demand, high cost, problems with equipment and components. Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam, added that drone attacks on oil refineries, which put pressure on the production of petroleum products, are also affecting the situation.

Katasonova estimates the probability of structural improvements by the end of the year as low. She is led to this conclusion by the deterioration of the export situation in terms of lower oil prices, rising inflation risks, which threatens to slow down the reduction in the key rate, as well as threats related to fuel problems.

In April, Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded to know why the country's GDP and industrial production have been declining in the first two months. Shortly after, Rosstat reported a noticeable rise in both indicators in March.