09.02.2026, 12:29
The rate cut in Russia was allowed for political reasons
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS At a meeting on Friday, February 13, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) may lower its key rate. This development was made by economist Denis Raksha, quoted by NSN.
According to the expert, the regulator can soften monetary policy by only 0.25 percentage points for "political" reasons. The Central Bank does not focus on the desires of the market, instead assessing the level of current inflation and inflation expectations.
"Both parameters look sad for the Central Bank, as current inflation has increased, as well as the inflation expectations of businesses and the population. Therefore, the Central Bank has no formal grounds for lowering the rate at the next meeting. Perhaps, under political pressure, the Central Bank will reduce the rate by 0.25 percentage points at most, which will be just a symbolic gesture to reassure the public," Raksha explained.
In turn, Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomics Analysis department at Finam, admitted that the Bank of Russia will choose between two options for the key interest rate — keeping it at 16 percent per annum and reducing it to 15.5 percent, follows from the forecast. The analyst considered the probability of a pause in the decline to be higher. The key arguments in favor of this development are the acceleration of inflation in Russia, the high inflation expectations of Russians and the situation with oil prices.
According to the expert, the regulator can soften monetary policy by only 0.25 percentage points for "political" reasons. The Central Bank does not focus on the desires of the market, instead assessing the level of current inflation and inflation expectations.
"Both parameters look sad for the Central Bank, as current inflation has increased, as well as the inflation expectations of businesses and the population. Therefore, the Central Bank has no formal grounds for lowering the rate at the next meeting. Perhaps, under political pressure, the Central Bank will reduce the rate by 0.25 percentage points at most, which will be just a symbolic gesture to reassure the public," Raksha explained.
In turn, Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomics Analysis department at Finam, admitted that the Bank of Russia will choose between two options for the key interest rate — keeping it at 16 percent per annum and reducing it to 15.5 percent, follows from the forecast. The analyst considered the probability of a pause in the decline to be higher. The key arguments in favor of this development are the acceleration of inflation in Russia, the high inflation expectations of Russians and the situation with oil prices.
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