OREANDA-NEWS In October, the observed inflation was 14.1 percent, which is significantly higher than the official one, but lower than the September 14.7 percent. This is evidenced by the data from a brief survey conducted by inFOM, commissioned by the Bank of Russia.

At the same time, inflation expectations remained at 12.6 percent, which coincides with the September estimate. The last time they were at a lower level was in September 2024, when the figure was 12.5 percent. As for the observed inflation, the minimum since May 2024 was recorded in October.

The number of respondents who believe that they have a cash reserve or savings that will allow them to hold out for some time in case of deprivation of a source of basic income has increased to 39 percent. This is the maximum since July, when 42 percent of the respondents answered this way.

Inflation expectations are one of the main factors that the Central Bank focuses on when deciding on the level of the key rate. The lower they are, the more likely it is to ease monetary policy, and their increase or consolidation at a certain level makes cautious behavior by the Central Bank more likely.

The next meeting of the regulator's board of directors, which will decide on the key rate, will be held on Friday, October 24. Most experts are inclined to believe that for the first time since June, the Central Bank will take a break, and some do not rule out that the rate will remain at the current level of 17 percent until the end of the year.