OREANDA-NEWS  Cocoa beans have become the most expensive commodity in the world: in mid-February 2024, quotations for raw materials for making chocolate rose to $ 6,000 per ton, the Izvestia newspaper reports.

Since the beginning of the year, the cost of cocoa has increased by more than 50 percent, to a record level since the 1970s. Since 2022, cocoa beans have risen in price by 130 percent due to the El Nino climatic phenomenon, which led to drought and heat in West Africa, the main region of production of this raw material.

Another reason for the decline in production and rising prices is the state of the industry. Producers have not invested in development and most of the trees in West Africa are already old and vulnerable to adverse weather conditions and diseases. Since most of the cocoa is sold for export before the start of the next season, the current high prices will not reach farmers for many months. While manufacturers are actively eating through stocks: For three years in a row, consumption has outstripped yields, which has not been the case over the past 50 years.

According to Alexander Silakov, director of S+Consulting, given that the share of cocoa in chocolate and confectionery products is more than 50 percent, this will affect the cost of sweets.

"The ruble exchange rate may also exert additional inflationary pressure on the cost of chocolate in Russia. Many manufacturers have already announced price increases from 2024 — by an average of 20%. According to our forecasts, in the second half of the year, the dynamics of price growth for chocolate products will show more significant values," he explained.

The cost of cocoa will continue to rise — as stated by financial expert Alexey Krichevsky, producers have problems with crops, fertilizers, and logistics, not least because of the blockade of the Red Sea. Therefore, raw materials will continue to rise in price, and prices may rise by another 30 percent in the near future. However, most likely, the transfer of world quotations to prices on the Russian market will be extended for one or two seasons, and more exchange rate fluctuations and difficulties with logistics during import will affect the prices of confectionery products," added Daria Snitko, head of the Center for Economic Forecasting at Gazprombank.

The largest cocoa suppliers have warned that chocolate in Russia will rise in price by about 30 percent in the near future. The upcoming price increase is influenced by the decline in cocoa bean processing worldwide and the consequences of a crop failure, which caused the volume of raw materials to fall by a third (36 percent). Another reason that leads to higher prices was the EU ban on selling coffee, cocoa beans and natural rubber produced in areas where trees had previously been cut down.