A dramatic worldwide drop in coal-fired power capacity under development brings Paris climate deal's 2°C target within reach
But this trend must be reinforced and extended, alongside a much faster retirement of existing coal-fired capacity, they said in a new report — Boom and Bust 2017. The report was compiled by environmental NGOs CoalSwarm, the Sierra Club and Greenpeace.
The drop occurred across all the development stages of coal-fired plants, including a 48pc fall in pre-construction activity, a 62pc decline in construction starts, a 19pc drop in construction and a 29pc decrease in completed projects, the NGOs said.
Just 570GW of capacity was in pre-construction planning in January, compared with 1,090GW a year earlier.
The trend of shrinking coal-fired capacity additions is mainly a result of shifting policies in Asia-Pacific, including a dramatic clampdown on expansion in China and a freeze on financing in India, the report said. It could mark a turning point after a decade of unprecedented capacity growth, it said.
Worldwide, more construction projects were frozen than started in the past year, with 68GW of capacity developments halted at over 100 project sites in China and India. Over 300GW of Chinese projects, at various stages of development, were put on hold until after 2020, including 55GW already under construction.
The country's coal-fired generation peaked in 2013 and additional power needs have been met by non-fossil fuel sources since then, the report said. Average Chinese coal-fired plant utilisation dropped below 50pc in 2015 and continued to fall last year.
India has enough coal-fired plants to meet demand until 2020, the power ministry said in June, and it recommended that developers curtail their plans. Work at 13 locations is on hold, accounting for 13GW of stranded assets.
And India is in the midst of a solar power revolution, with bids as low as 2.97 rupees/kWh (4.4?/kWh), and government proposals to install 215GW of renewable generation by 2027. "The combination of excessive coal-fired power capacity and the declining cost of renewables has caused many financial backers to withdraw support from coal projects," the report said.
China and India accounted for 86pc of coal-fired capacity additions in 2006-16 and the slowdown in plant construction in these countries may herald a global phase-out of coal in the coming decades, the NGOs said.
And plant retirements are taking place at an "unprecedented pace", the report said — 64 GW of capacity, equivalent to around 120 large coal-fired units have shutdown in the past two years, mainly in the EU and US. Belgium and Ontario, Canada, are now coal-free and three G8 countries have set deadlines for coal phase-outs.
Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and Turkey continue to build and plan new coal-fired plants and have failed to develop renewables at the same rate as their peers. But "markets are demanding clean energy, and no amount of rhetoric from [US president] Donald Trump can stop the fall of coal in the US and across the globe," Sierra Club climate and energy campaigner Nicole Ghio said.
To meet the Paris targets of keeping the global temperature increase well below 2°C, and aiming for 1.5°C, CO2 emissions from coal-fired power must limited to 125bn t and 215bn t, respectively, by 2050. By comparison, emissions from plants operating, under construction or expected to start up are forecast at 271bn t in that timeframe, which makes it necessary to retire plants earlier than their standard 40-year lifespan.
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