Analysts Predicted the End of the Era of Free Money in the World
Among other things, analysts predicted the emergence of digital currencies of central banks, as well as excess inventory of goods. They believe that, despite fears associated with new strains of coronavirus, stagflation is not threatening the global economy in the new year. The bank's strategists describe the emerging trend as "growthflation" - a combination of high growth rates with high inflation. At the same time, they note that the rise in prices will be supported by the so-called helicopter money - funds aimed at supporting the population during a pandemic.
Experts believe the fight against COVID-19 will be successful. Among the reasons are the expansion of the availability of vaccines, the emergence of drugs for the coronavirus.
Deutsche Bank expects a quick recovery of the labor market, the growth rate of which is called hypersonic. However, they pointed out that it usually takes four to seven years for the labor market to recover from a recession. Thus, in the United States, the unemployment rate has returned to a level of 4.2% compared to 3.5% before the pandemic, in France and Spain, the employment rate is already higher than in the period before the coronavirus.
On the other hand, the labor market with a high demand for labor and the resulting increase in wages is becoming another inflationary factor, experts complained.