OREANDA-NEWS  A sharp reduction in oil and gas revenues of the federal budget throughout 2026 may lead to its deficit reaching 7.8-9.3 trillion rubles, that is, 2-2.5 times higher than the planned level. The Telegram channel MMI writes about this with reference to the data of the Ministry of Finance for January.

Last month, total budget revenues decreased by 11.6 percent, to 2.36 trillion rubles. Expenses also fell, but much less — by 1.4 percent, to 4.08 trillion.

If revenues from the sale of oil and gas remain at the current level, then the gap from the revenue plan will amount to 3-3.5 trillion rubles. In addition, analysts expect an increase in spending for general reasons by one to two trillion rubles, which, taking into account the deficit of 3.786 trillion rubles prescribed in the budget law, will result in a record deficit.

As noted in the message, the realization of such risks will be the main constraint for reducing the level of the key rate. Prior to this, the Central Bank had repeatedly noted that a balanced budget policy, that is, reducing the deficit, would be one of the conditions for easing monetary policy.

Earlier, a source close to the government said that in 2026 the federal budget deficit could amount to 3.5-4.4 percent of GDP, that is, reach 10.5 trillion rubles. By the end of 2025, the deficit exceeded expectations by five times, reaching 5,645 trillion rubles. At the same time, the total budget deficit of the regions soared fivefold, so that the situation in the consolidated budget turned out to be even worse than in the federal budget separately.