Analysis: Northeast US grids face gas fallout

OREANDA-NEWS. Bulk power systems in New England and parts of the mid-Atlantic region are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in natural gas delivery infrastructure, according to a recent study.

Gas infrastructure contingencies, such as compressor outages and pipeline ruptures, on a cold winter day may potentially remove 13pc of total scheduled generation in the New England grid, according to the study prepared by consultancy Levitan Associates on behalf of the Eastern Interconnect Planning Collaborative and with funding from the US Department of Energy.

The percentage of total generation affected by gas outages is higher in the New York and Midcontinent independent system operator territories. But gas-fired generators located in those grids have access to alternative supply sources, and grid operators can switch to non-gas generation sources located nearby.

New England is in a precarious situation because gas-fired generators affected by potential delivery contingencies do not have dual-fuel capacity, and there are no natural gas storage facilities in the region. Isolated pockets in PJM's mid-Atlantic region and New York's lower Hudson valley face a similar predicament.

The study assumed a higher-than-normal power burn in winter 2018-19. Lost output from New England generators in the worst-case scenario could exceed 50GWh. The study has not looked at electric reliability implications, but the scenario is similar to January 2014 when a cold wave affecting most of the eastern US has forced gigawatts of gas and coal-fired capacity off line.

Gas midstream operators inevitably will point to the study results to advocate for greater reliance on firm pipeline transportation by power generators. But power plants in New England and elsewhere still are not fully convinced of the economic merits of that approach.