OREANDA-NEWS  The Bank of Russia will significantly raise the inflation forecast for 2024 at the July meeting of the Board of Directors and does not exclude an increase in the forecast along the trajectory of the key rate.

"The inflation forecast will be significantly updated on July 26 and, naturally, it will be updated upward, since both the May and June price growth data exceed what was included in the April forecast (inflation of 4.3-4.8% for 2024)," he told reporters on the sidelines Central Bank Financial Congress Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin.

"The trajectory of the key rate is highly related to the trajectory of inflation and the intensity of inflationary pressure. An upward revision of the inflation forecast, if it is associated with stable factors on the demand side, inevitably entails a revision of the trajectory of the key rate upward," he said.

The Central Bank's April inflation forecast for 2024 is 4.3-4.8%. The Bank of Russia expects that annual inflation will return to the target in 2025 and will be near 4% in the future.

The average key rate for 2024, according to the April forecast of the Central Bank, is 15-16%, for 2025 - 10-12%, for 2026 - 6-7% (this range was previously estimated as neutral).