OREANDA-NEWS  This year, the Russian economy is expected to fall by 1.1 percent after a 2.1 percent reduction in GDP in 2022, analysts surveyed by the Central Bank (CB) expect. The results of the "Macroeconomic Survey of the Bank of Russia" with estimates of prospects are published on the regulator's website.

The experts' forecast improved slightly compared to February — then analysts called a decrease of 1.5 percent. Already in 2024, the country's economy is expected to grow by 1.5 percent, in 2025 the indicator will remain at the same level.

Along with the decline in GDP, inflation will be six percent — almost two times lower than at the end of 2022. The country will be able to reach the target level of four percent in 2025, experts estimate. The dollar exchange rate in 2023 will be 73.6 rubles, in 2024 - 75.3 rubles, and in 2025 it will grow to 77.9 rubles.

The survey was conducted from March 2 to March 6, 24 specialists from various organizations participated in it. The presented indicators are the median of their forecasts.

Other estimates are provided by foreign analysts surveyed by Bloomberg — according to their forecasts, the Russian economy is waiting for the "culmination" of the recession against the background of the Ukrainian conflict and sanctions. The biggest decline, in their opinion, will occur in the first quarter of 2023 — then the country's GDP will shrink by more than eight percent.